Bhubaneswar: India could be heading for a consumer paradox, and it’s the iPhone producer who may feel the pinch first. As the Trump administration reboots its ‘America First’ tariff strategy, India finds itself caught in the crosshairs of a global economic reshuffle.
While gold prices appear poised for a dramatic slide, it is the steep climb in smartphone costs, particularly Apple’s flagship devices, that signals deeper disruptions ahead.
Research and analysis firm Morningstar projects gold rates could plummet by up to 38%, potentially hitting Rs 56,000 per 10 grams from the current approximately Rs 90,000. The slide is attributed to a cocktail of global forces, including spiking supply, easing central bank demand, and fresh tariff tremors unleashed by the US.
While financial advisors caution that the full impact may play out over years, early signs are evident, with prices dropping by Rs 2,720 in many cities in just 48 hours, although they could be mere corrections.
But the bigger story lies with the smartphones in our pockets. India’s electronics exports, particularly iPhones assembled by firms like Foxconn and Tata, are directly in the line of fire after a 26% US tariff was slapped on Indian goods.
While this rate is less severe than those levied on China and Vietnam, it threatens to dent Apple’s carefully laid manufacturing plans.
Estimates suggest the base iPhone 16 could jump from USD 799 to USD 1,242 (around Rs 1 lakh), while the premium Pro Max may retail near Rs 2 lakh. For context, the entry-level iPhone is currently priced at around Rs 79,000, making the market extremely steep.
However, the iPhone situation is worse for the Indian government than the consumers, as the country is planning to stand out as a trade and manufacturing hub.
India has emerged as Apple’s preferred fallback after China, aided by Rs 8,700 crore in government incentives under the PLI scheme. iPhone exports reached nearly Rs 1 lakh crore in just ten months. Yet, competitors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with leaner supply chains and lower tariffs, are making aggressive plays.
For Indian buyers, the tariff fallout is unmistakable. Gold may sparkle at lower prices, but the real sticker shock may come when they walk into an Apple Store.
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